1952 Statistics

Sometimes it is a good idea to go back to the beginning. In historical research documents closest to the date of an event are always viewed as having more weight and substance than later ones. Later writings can so often add layers of 'second thought' and 'cover your assets' thinking that the truth can be contaminated for even the best of purposes. As American astronomer and librarian, Maria Mitchel said, "That knowledge which is popular is not scientific."  The scientist has to be willing to jump the fences of popularly accepted rubrics of thought to find the truth - even when those hurdles may represent others within the scientific academy.

An example of how events can be colored by passing of years can be seen in the field memos and reports from the Civil War when compared to the much later after successful careers memoirs or autobiographies by later generations. The dirt is swept out sight, the uncertainty is reshaped into heroic thoughts and deeds and bungling superior officers or less than glories peers are made of sterner, wiser, and more commanding "stuff."

In 1952 a report was put together, probably in preparation for the coming Robertson Panel and the first major study of the Air Force investigations into the unknowns in the skies.

US Astronomer Maria Mitchell, ca1851

The information they reflect is, however, extremely interesting and puts to rest many of the accusations leveled at the people who saw things in the skies and reported them to newspapers or the military. Of course, there is the issue of trustworthiness of the data itself, as has been mentioned earlier in this blog, statistical studies of the work of the Air Force through these projects is based on the labels and explanations the Air Force itself gave to them. That might be like asking the Fox just how many chickens are in the hen house and never counting them for yourself: if the Fox gets hungrywho is going to question the keeper of the inventory on the number of chickens in the hen house?

Let us assume that these early studies are less tainted by later levels of secrecy or manipulation to conform end results to an agenda of National Security, Top Secret Experiments, or Close Encounters of the 1,2, or 3 kinds.

Here is what the report had to say (highest percentages):
Objects were seen (a) through open space 69.5%
                              (b) binoculars 12.6%  

Weather conditions for the sightings:
Clear sky 74.8%   with scattered clouds 16.2%
Winds :
No winds 51.8%   Slight breeze 34.6%
Temperatures: Dry 81.0%    Warm 52.6% and Cool 17.7%

Estimated length of time object was viewed:
1 second to 10 seconds 25.6%
Over 10 minutes 19.1%
11 seconds to 30 seconds 15.5%
30 second to 1 minute 11.9%
2 minutes to 5 minutes 12.5%

Witness Certainty Rating:
Certain of what they saw 49.4%
Fairly 40.8%
Object looked solid?
Yes 78.5%
No response 12.6%
Transparent 4.8%

Did Object change direction?
Yes 39.6%  No 54.5%
---change speed?
yes 27.4% No 64.2%
---change size?
Yes 14.9% No 75.1%
---Color?
Yes 11.9% No 79.3%
---remained motionless?
Yes 18.5% No 69.8%
---object flickered?
Yes 17.7  No 72%

Did Object give off a light?
Yes 72.3%  No 22.3%  Don't Know 3.6%   No Respon 7.8%

Did the object give off a sound?

No 89.9%

What color was the object?
Silver 16.2%
Pink 1.9%
Orange 13.0%
Green 1.9%
Gray 2.5%
Yellow 14.9%
White 24.2%
Green-blue 2.5%
Blue 4.9%
Dark 3.1%
Red 2/5%
Unclassified 4.9%
No Response 7.5%

Number of objects observed?
More than 1 object 30.9%
2 objects 38.5%
3 objects 19.2%
5 objects 17.6%
Of these 30.9% -----
Did the object move behind something?
Yes 26.8%   No 64.9%
Did object move in front of something?
Yes 5.9% No 76.8% and No Response 14.2%

Estimations of object size:
All estimations are based on standard of the time and the stated and assumed tag "held at arm's length."
Pea - 19.2%
Baseball - 12.5%
Basketball - 13.7%
Bike Wheel -7.7%
Dirigble - 6.6%
Large aircraft - 4.2%
Auto 2/5%
[Note later on the use of currency will be popular. A dime held at arm's length is still a standard and it roughly approximates the size of the moon)

How high above the earth was the object estimated to be?
1001-5000 feet - 17.9%
10,000+ - 25.8%
Don't know - 28.2%

How did the object disappear?
Sudennly - 52.8%
Gradually - 40.1 %

Was the sighting the first by the observer?
Yes - 91.6%  No 23.8%